The rise of the mega-city & the demise of the west.

-
I’ve been doing some thinking and study about the growing urbanisation of the world, and considering some of the changes and trends that will emerge over the next few decades. One of the most interesting things however is just the stand alone stats for the numbers in our emerging mega cities.

Look at these changes:

Top 10 Cities in 2000
1/ Tokyo, Japan 28m
2/Mexico City, Mexico 18m
3/ Mumbai, India, 18m
4/ Sao Paulo, Brazil 17m
5/ New York, USA 17m
6/ Shanghai, China 14m
7/ Lagos, Nigeria 13m
8/ Los Angeles, USA 13m
9/ Kolkata, India 13m
10/ Buenos Aires, Arg 12m

Top 10 Cities in 2025
1/ Mumbai, India 30m
2/ Lagos, Nigeria 30m
3/ Tokyo, Japan 29m
4/ Karachi, Pakistan 25m
5/ Dhaka, Bangladesh 24m
6/ Kolkata, India 21m
7/ Mexico City, Mexico 21m
8/ Sao Paulo, Brazil 21m
9/ Shanghai, China 21m

Top 10 Cities in 2050
1/ Lagos, Nigeria 64m
2/ Mumbai, India 50m
3/ Karachi, Pakistan 50m
4/ Dhaka, Bangladesh 49m
5/ Kolkata, India 34m
6/ Kinshasa, Congo DR 34m
7/ Delhi, India 33m
8/ Shanghai, China 30m
9/ Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 30m
10/ Tokyo, Japan 30m

These numbers are stunning, and the change is going to be felt most in the West, particularly Europe and America as our influence in the world diminishes. I’ll blog some implications next week that arise out of these expected growth figures. But the shift from north to south in global terms, and particularly the rise of India, China and the African mega cities is striking!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Don't kiss me - cross cultural fumblings!

-
This weekend I've kissed a number of people on the lips, the eyebrow, the ear and even the forehead. This embarrassing intimacy is all the result of difficult European greeting customs which us Brits should never be subjected to! In spite of travelling regularly and schooling myself in language and cross cultural understanding, the actual moment of greeting still baffles me. I know it's coming, as they approach and dip their head, I seize up, unsure whether to swerve left or right. Consequently I either meet them full on the mouth, or some awful near miss which more resembles a yuppie 'mwah' than a genuine Italian 'Ciao'. Returning home on Monday with the scars of fumbled greetings still fresh in my mind, I recalled this old but still brilliant Pam Ayres reflection on the matter. It's still best in her own words: But Don't Kiss Me.. I want to ask a favour of the friends that I might meet, To all of my acquaintances who pass me in the street, Give me a c
Read more

Myra Wattinger & the voice of God

-
I've been reading Jack Deere's excellent 'Surprised by the voice of God' again this week. His story about Myra Wattinger is well worth retelling here. Alone & penniless, Myra wondered through the South Texas towns of the 1940's, finally getting a job caring for an elderly man. The pay was pitiful, but at least she had the security of a place to sleep & food to eat. Myra had a history of what psychiatrists today would call 'rejection'. She & her husband had recently divorced. Although he was prosperous he refused to give her any money. Her parents had died when she was an adolescent, so she had no one to turn to for help. As Myra sat in the house watching her elderly employer sleeping, she thought her life had sunk as low as it could go. Sadly, she was wrong. The devil had planned a new torment for her, something that would even bring her to the point of killing herself. One day, while the old man was sleeping, she found herself alone in the house
Read more

The Seven Marks of a Healthy Church

-
Continuing the exploration of healthy church - Robert Warren's excellent 'Healthy Churches Handbook' contains a number of helpful steps. I've used these headings to provoke discussion amongst leaders in various contexts over the years, also finding them personally useful in my own setting. Whilst Warren writes to provoke life in established Anglican churches that have lost their purpose, his challenge remains relevant and provocative for those of us who consider ourselves to be in more progressive movements. Understanding Warren's primary target church audience means we are not going to import everything he suggests, but the thinking process involved in his seven 'marks' is well worthwhile. I will simply paraphrase his marks below without comment. As you reflect on your own context, you will find they speak for themselves and leave you making mental notes and adjustments. They may even send you running for the whiteboard with your leadership team! Perh
Read more